Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders (50%-33%), and Donald Trump leads the Republican field (Trump 38%, Cruz 15%, Rubio 13%), according to The Mid February Roanoke College Poll.
The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 466 likely Republican voters and 415 likely Democratic voters in Virginia between February 16 and February 24 and has a margin of error of +4.5 percent for the Republican race and + 4.8 for the Democratic contest.
Republicans – Angry electorate favors Trump more than 2-1 over Cruz and Rubio
Donald Trump (38%) holds a commanding lead over his rivals Ted Cruz (15%) and Marco Rubio (13%), with John Kasich (8%) and Ben Carson (8%) trailing the field.
Republicans are mostly divided between being merely dissatisfied with how the federal government is working (47%) and being angry (42%) about how the federal government is working. A significant minority (44%) also feel they have been betrayed by the Republican Party, and more than half (53%) say they prefer a candidate who is outside the political establishment. Those who prefer an outsider are most likely to support Trump (59%), but discontent with the federal government, although ubiquitous among Republicans, makes little difference in Trump’s support.
Those who feel betrayed by the party still favor Trump (41%), but they are the strongest group of Cruz supporters (24%). Rubio fares better among those who prefer a candidate with political experience (29%) and those who want a candidate who can win in November (23%).
Still, Trump leads in every group except those who prefer a candidate with political experience, who constitute only 30 percent of Republicans.
Democrats – Clinton holds solid lead, but has problems with several groups
While Hillary Clinton is far ahead of her rival Bernie Sanders (50%-33%), there are some causes of concern for the Clinton campaign, if not in Virginia, then down the road. There is a very large gender gap, with women preferring Clinton (57%-24%), but men favoring Sanders (44%-42%).
Although Clinton does quite well with older voters, leading Sanders by 58-24 percent among those 45 and older, Sanders actually leads among those younger than 45 years old by a 48-37 percent margin. He even leads among 18- to 29-year-old women, (but that is a small sample size and large margin of error.) The Democrats also feature racial differences, with whites virtually split (Sanders 43%, Clinton 42%) and blacks strongly favoring Clinton (58%-24%).
Democrats are significantly less dissatisfied with the federal government than are Republicans, although still more than half are dissatisfied (41%) or angry (13%). Clinton’s margin increases among those more satisfied with the government. Similarly, Democrats are less likely to feel betrayed by their party, but Sanders leads (47%-40%) among those who do feel betrayed.
Analysis
“Both Trump and Clinton appear very likely to win their respective primary elections in Virginia,” said Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. “Trump is taking advantage of the Republican desire for an ‘outsider,’ while Clinton does extremely well with the more Democrats who are satisfied with the federal government’s performance. While both are very formidable candidates within their party, both have issues with some groups of voters which could be problematic for them in the future.”
Methodology
Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College between February 16 and February 24, 2016. A total of 466 Virginia Republican likely voters and 415 Virginia likely Democratic voters were interviewed.
A copy of the questionnaire and all toplines and crosstabs may be found here.
More information about the Poll may be obtained by contacting Dr. Harry Wilson at [email protected]. The Roanoke College Poll is funded by Roanoke College as a public service.