Warner leads widely-unknown Gillespie in possible Senate race
Virginians strongly support mental health and ethics reforms, but are divided on Medicaid expansion, according to The Roanoke College Poll. In a very early test of a possible November match-up, Senator Mark Warner leads Republican Ed Gillespie by almost 30 points (50%-21%), but Gillespie is unfamiliar to most Virginians.
Issues in the 2014 General Assembly
There is a consensus among most Virginians that gifts to elected officials and their families should be regulated more strictly. Sixty percent of the respondents agree that gifts to elected officials should be limited to $250 in value, while another 20 percent think that limit is too high. Two-thirds (66%) think that gifts to families should also be limited, and 70 percent agree that those gifts should be reported.
Respondents also strongly support reform of the state’s mental health procedures. A large majority (81%) of Virginians support extending the length of time for emergency custody to 24 hours, while 7 percent prefer an expansion to six hours. An equal number (81%) favor creating an electronic registry of available beds in psychiatric facilities, and nearly as many (70%) favor adding $38 million to the next budget for mental health care as proposed by former Governor Bob McDonnell.
After 50 years of the War on Poverty, just over one-third (36%) of those interviewed judged the program a success, while nearly two-thirds said it was not very successful (31%) or not at all successful (32%). Respondents were also asked what percentage of the poor they think are in poverty through no fault of their own. The average was 42 percent, and the midpoint (median) was 40 percent (20% were unable or refused to answer the question). With regard to Medicaid expansion, one-third (33%) said the program should be expanded in Virginia only when it is reformed to be more efficient. Slightly fewer (30%) said it should be expanded now, and one in four (26%) said it should not be expanded at all.
With regard to other issues before the General Assembly, residents are split on granting in-state tuition to undocumented students who have graduated from a Virginia high school and have lived in the Commonwealth for at least three years (46% favor the idea, and 41% oppose it). Residents are also split on the SOL (Standards of Learning) tests, with 45 percent in favor of eliminating them altogether, and 46 percent preferring to keep them. Respondents favor (69%) automatic restoration of voting privileges to non-violent felons who have completed their sentence. Finally, Virginians continue to express strong support (69%) for allowing Governors of the state to run for consecutive terms of office.
Regulating firearms
Support for gun control has remained steady over the course of the past year, while several national polls have shown a decline in support a year after the Newtown, CT shootings. Strong majorities of Virginians support requiring background checks for all firearm purchases at gun shows (85%) and universal background checks for firearm purchases, including private transactions (75%).
Respondents were asked if they favored banning a variety of different types of firearms. A majority (55%) favored banning “assault rifles.” Virginians are evenly split regarding banning all semi-automatic rifles (47% favor, 48% oppose), marginally oppose banning semi-automatic shotguns (45% favor, 50% oppose) and oppose banning semi-automatic handguns (43% favor, 52% oppose). More than one-fourth (26%) of those interviewed favor banning all guns. A ban on all magazines that can hold more than 10 rounds was favored by 49 percent.
Elected officials’ approval ratings
President Barack Obama’s favorable rating is 47 percent (43% unfavorable), which is slightly lower than in the October 30, 2013 Roanoke College Poll. Former Governor Bob McDonnell finished his term at 43 percent, up 3 percent from October 30, while Terry McAuliffe begins his term as Governor with a 36 percent favorable rating (22% unfavorable).
Virginians remain more optimistic regarding the state of the Commonwealth than that of the country. Almost half (47%) think the state is going in the right direction, while two-thirds (66%) think the country has gotten off on the wrong track. Both of those measures have been fairly consistent over the course of the past year.
A majority of Virginians (60%) thinks that government functions better when the parties split control of the executive and legislative branches.
Analysis
“Virginians clearly support reforms to the mental health system and ethics laws in the Commonwealth,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. “They are more split on Medicaid reform, perhaps due in part to their views regarding the poor and their skepticism of programs designed to help them, such as the War on Poverty.”
“At this very early point in the U.S. Senate race, Ed Gillespie is unknown to most Virginians. Given that 75 percent don’t know enough about him to have an either favorable or unfavorable opinion of him, it is no surprise he trails Mark Warner so decisively. There is plenty of time for that to change as the state gets to know him. In politics, 10 months is an eternity. Meanwhile, Warner, generally the most popular elected official in the Commonwealth, has seen his approval rating drop below 50 percent. That is low for him, but still a rating that most elected officials would envy.”
Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between January 13 and January 17, 2014.
A copy of the questionnaire and all frequencies may be found on the Roanoke College web site.
