New Poll Finds VA Republicans / Independents United in Support of Using Natural Gas for Electricity

On another key energy issue likely to face the 2025 General Assembly starting Wednesday, Virginians are also opposed to the creation of a new state oversight process that would be empowered to override local objections to the construction of large solar farms. In that case, however, the division is closer — with about half of the Democrats and even one third of the Republicans polled in favor of such a bill.

The survey was conducted on behalf of the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. Between December 17 and 20, 625 registered voters were questioned. The Thomas Jefferson Institute questions were part of a larger survey conducted by Mason-Dixon on multiple other issues.

Republican leaders and legislators are getting a clear message on both of these question from their base voters. The message is more mixed for Democrats, and their leadership clearly should at least reconsider the “no way, no how” approach on using natural gas for electricity in the future. But the political analysis always must focus on the Independents, and there Virginia’s Democrats are clearly out of step with voters, while Republicans are in line with the voters both sides need to win the 2025 election contests.

On the bitter cold morning this was being written, the vast majority of the electricity being generated along the eastern seaboard came from natural gas or coal, both fuels Democratic Party orthodoxy and state law insist must go away. Dominion Energy Virginia is pushing back in its latest integrated resource plan, proposing instead to add up to 6,000 megawatts of additional gas plants in coming years. The idea is being bitterly opposed.

Here is the question we posed on that issue:

QUESTION: Virginia’s largest electricity provider wants to build additional natural gas power plants to meet future energy needs. It states that more natural gas will be needed because it works more continually than wind and solar power. Do you support or oppose the construction of new natural gas plants?

Overall, 66% of respondents said “support” and only 31% “oppose,” with an unusually small 3% claiming to be undecided. Among the 214 self-identified Democrats in the sample, 46% favored more gas and 49% opposed it. The contrast with Republicans was stark (91% versus 7%).  Independents were also comfortably in support of new natural gas plants (62% to 35%). There were 195 Republican respondents and 216 self-identified Independents.

It is not clear yet whether legislation will be introduced this year to amend or repeal the Virginia Clean Economy Act’s (VCEA) mandated schedule for the full elimination of coal and natural gas. The law grants the regulatory State Corporation Commission discretion to allow additional gas plants if it is convinced that they are needed to maintain reliability.  Legislation could either reinforce that autonomy or reduce it, but Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) is on record favoring adding natural gas and keeping it as a fuel source beyond the VCEA deadlines.

There is no question the issue of local control over the siting of large solar projects, and perhaps other infrastructure favored by the need to comply with the VCEA, will be squarely in front of legislators in the next few months. Developing such a bill has been the major focus of stakeholder groups and a legislative study panel, newly energized with a hard anti-hydrocarbon fuel agenda.

Question: Local opposition and zoning rules can make it difficult for large solar power farms that often occupy hundreds of acres to get approved. Legislation is being proposed to create a state oversight process that could override local objections or zoning rules and grant the needed permission. Do you support or oppose such legislation?

Overall, 41% of respondents favored such legislation and 53% opposed it. Among Democrats the division was 49% in favor and 41% opposed, with a full 10% undecided. Republicans split 33% in favor and 61% against, with Independents 40% in favor and 58% opposed.

Mason-Dixon also provides a regional cross tabulation, but the sample sizes are so small they must be viewed cautiously. Opposition to adding new natural gas was strongest in Northern Virginia and weakest in the state’s southwest region. But the issue of allowing a state entity to make project location decisions over local objections didn’t produce much regional variation as opposition remained consistent across the subgroupings.

Instead, there was an age pattern, with respondents under age 50 slightly favoring a law to provide state override authority and respondents 50 or older opposing it.  On the question of adding new natural gas, however, even the younger cohort favored it, 61% to 27%.  Black voters comprised 19% of the sample, and they favored adding natural gas (55% to37%) and split closely on the question of local control over plant locations (43% supporting a state override and 45% opposing it.)